U.S. Dollar Index

USD INDEX

The U.S. dollar index has been trading within a major long-term ranging pattern, as shown on the weekly chart above. The index has been moving among a giant pennant-like formation, fluctuating among its support and resistance levels.

The latest peak in July was a retest to the top of the formation, however the index failed to follow through, retreating back and breaking below the latest swing low of the wave at 81.16 which was the initial trend reversal signal. Meanwhile, the index has settled back below the cluster of long term 6-month moving averages (high, low and close).

During the past weeks, we have seen a retest of the this broken low at 81.16 and the cluster of averages, which provided a potential bearish setup as the index may be in the process of resuming the bearish wave that started from the top of the pennant.

Accordingly, if a bearish move follows, that will complete forming the right shoulder for a possible Head and Shoulders pattern, as shown on chart. A continuation below the neckline of the projected pattern currently around 78.80 would be a major bearish signal, and clears the way towards the bottom of the pennant currently around 74.00 areas.

The suggested bearish scenario will remain valid so long as 82.85 level is intact.

Trading Strategy till New Year Holidays: For Scalpers!

Most Pairs have entered into "RANGE/CONSOLIDATION". So plz try to SELL the Range High 

and Buy the Range Low.

Good Luck!

Upcoming Holidays & Market

TREND FORECAST will now be updated by the 1st week Jan 2013. Market Volume is light and not recommended for Trend Traders. However, Scalpers can make money trading in the direction of the main trend.

We will use this time to post important Trade Setups on the larger Time Frames for Forex, OIL, GOLD, SP500.

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

Over Heated Market

There will be no Trend Forecast for today as market seems to be overheated and needs to cool down before taking an entry.

Caution: Trade at your own risk.

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

96+ Safe, Low Risk PIPs Booked by the System

TOP BANKS GOLD FORECAST: 2013

GBP/USD: DAILY CHART

EUR/USD: DAILY CHART

GOLD: DAILY CHART

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

NOTE: Due to upcoming holidays, volume has started to decrease and daily movement of pairs (ATR) is squeezing as well. Range Setups would be most effective in this kind of market.

72+ Safe, Low Risk, pips booked

GOLD Short Term Buy Target

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

Dollar Index: Higher High on the Daily

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

149+ PIPS

UK & US Session Trend Forecast

167+ PIPS

The Right Trade Size!

Here are the two aspects you’ll need to answer before determining appropriate trade size:

• Percent risk you’re willing to accept per trade –We recommend less than 2%
• Where do you want your stop in terms of pips

Percent risk you’re willing to accept

This will have nothing to do with the market and everything to do with your account balance. You determine your risk, not the market. Your money management system will tell you where to get out of every trade. We recommend you limit your risk per trade to less than 2% of your account equity. Noting this before you enter a trade is being proactive and will prevent you from increasing your exposure based on how good a set up looks to you. All good traders look to limit risk and most poor traders neglect this.

Many good traders will keep a trade journal that will have their current account equity updated and how much they should risk on any one trade. Our $10,000 account example with the 2% max trade risk tells us that before we look at the charts, we are only willing to lose $200 on a single trade. For most traders, this relieves stress by itself.

Converting that risk into Trade Size

Now that we know how much is at risk, we next decide the best trade size for us based on our pip based exit. Here is a simple formula to use to determine your trade size:

Proper Trade Size Formula:

Your three inputs will be your account balance, what percentage you want to risk, and the number of pips you are willing to allow the market to go against you before you exit the trade.

Account balanceX% risked / stop loss distance in pips = maximum value per pip

Using our example above and plugging into the formula, here are the three inputs.

Account balance = $10,000

Percent Risk = 2%

Stop loss distance = 100 pips

Plugging them into the formula:

$10,000 X 2% / 100 pips = $2 per pip (or 0.2 lot size) approx.

GOLD Update- Wave Analysis & Targets

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

XAUUSD – Spot Gold trading range

The spot gold market has been trapped in a range between $1750.00 resistance and $1705.00 support for the last few weeks now. Price showed some rejection of $1705.00 support late last week and if you take a look at the 4 hour chart there were a couple of pin bars that formed showing rejection of that level last week. If price remains buoyant above $1705.00 early this week, we could see a move higher back towards the trading range resistance at $1750.00. Whereas a move back below $1705.00 would open the door up for larger losses.

Ranging Pairs (Based on Weekly ATR in PIPS)

Trending Pairs (Based on Weekly ATR in PIPS)

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

360+ PIPS

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

2012 Thanksgiving CME Holiday Hours

The CME stock indexes will have abbreviated trading hours on Thursday and Friday. Please be aware of any early closes and if you are using daytrade margins please make sure you are flat at the early close time.

Thursday, Nov 22

1030 CT – Early close

1700 CT – Halted products resume trading

Friday, Nov 23

1215 CT – Early close 

Forex Market is expected to be range bound with low trading volume.

Update: 350+ pips

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

S&P 500 - Forecast

Here is a daily bar chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the start of 2012.

Last week the  market rallied to kiss its 50 day moving average (black wavy line) and then dropped to new lows for the move down which began from the September 14 top. As you know I think this market is headed down at least into the 1310-20 zone where the current drop would equal the size of the March-June 2012 drop (blue dash rectangles).

However a drop that low would put the  S&P well under its 200 day moving average (red wavy line). Since the bull market had already lasted 42 months at the September high such a down side penetration of the  200 day moving average has bearish implications. In this situation I would expect the drop to 1310-20 to be followed by a rally which would carry the S&P back to its 200 day and to its 50 day moving averages.But after that rally I would expect the market to continue lower.

A drop as big as the  2011 drop would carry the S&P down to 1170-90. George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation has been a good context within which to interpret the market's action for nearly two years now. The downside target is the October 2011 low near 1080.

(Written by BY CARL FUTIA)

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

Caution Advised: GBP & EUR Interest Rate Decision

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

NFP Day - Caution Advised

Market is expected to be highly volatile in the early US Session, so trade with measured risk.

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

Update: 200+ pips

Price Forecast: EUR/USD & GBP/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Yesterday's several tests of 1.2885 area failed and current intraday bias is positive above 1.2916 support, struggling below 1.2950 dynamic resistance. I expect a break through the descending trend line to initiate a rise for through 1.3022 crucial level, en route to 1.3170 high.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Yesterday's slide below 1.6050 was limited above 1.5997 support area and current intraday bias is already positive above 1.6040 minor support, so my outlook is bullish, for a rise through 1.6145, towards 1.6308 high. 

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500

HURRICANE SANDY UPDATE: U.S. MARKETS TO REMAIN CLOSED TUESDAY

London & US Session Trend Forecast: FX, OIL, GOLD, S&P500